Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: WVUA FM Tuscaloosa.
[00:00:15] Speaker B: Now, I guess. Luke Anderson.
What's your thoughts? Again, we are both fans of an NLE's team. Of course, you've had some me Braves, but Aaronola stays with Philadelphia now, I guess let's also talk about this. We both saw this, of course, with our teams. He did not exactly have a career year last year. And then he comes back very much. I'll say this this is my opinion before I kind of go and delve into it an overpay situation.
It's very clear that Philadelphia wanted to lock him down because he was having conversations with other teams, right?
[00:00:52] Speaker C: Yeah. I mean, no doubt about that, Carson. I mean, like you said, this is actually one of his worst seasons that he's pitched. But I think that because of the fact that he's been in the organization for so long and he has had some very good years that he still can have, they wanted to lock him down. I mean, I saw this coming on the show before Thanksgiving when we talked about kind of what moves we saw happening to kickstart, free agency. I actually did say that one of the first moves made would be Aranola resigning. So I didn't see it being seven years and such a big long term deal with a lot of money involved. I would have kind of expected more closer to maybe four or five years. But I know that they do want to lock him down, but they are signing him for seven years. I mean, he's 30 right now, so the contract is going to run until he's 37 and he's making a lot of money each year. So we'll see later down the line how this contract looks. But for the organization, I think that retaining him was a good move on their part.
[00:01:49] Speaker B: Yeah. So, I mean, let's talk about, I guess, why that overpaid happened, because Aaronola was a name deeply connected to the Braves before Thanksgiving break. If you were listening and a lot of us, including myself, thought, there's no way he's not signing with the Atlanta Braves because everyone kept saying, it looks like it's going to be Atlanta or it's going to be someone else. It seems like the Phillies and him arguably off and then boom, there he is with Philadelphia. I mean, Philly had to make a now let me say this.
Could you call this a potential panic offer that Philadelphia made to him?
[00:02:24] Speaker A: Yeah, I think you could definitely say, um, was he yes.
[00:02:31] Speaker B: Yes.
[00:02:32] Speaker A: So he was obviously in talks with was he in talks with the Braves? Was that announced?
[00:02:35] Speaker B: That's the rumor. He was like deep in talks.
[00:02:38] Speaker A: Maybe the Phillies heard that he was in talks with the Braves and they didn't want him to leave within division and get him back for a reasonable number. But I think they did overpay a little bit.
[00:02:51] Speaker B: I think they way overpaid.
[00:02:53] Speaker A: Yeah. I mean, what was it?
[00:02:54] Speaker C: It's 170 the average salary is 24 m's, which I think is even high right now. But when he's 36, 37 getting paid back, I could look at the actual that's just the average, but let's see. No, I mean, yeah, it's just 24 million. It's the same salary every year.
[00:03:13] Speaker A: A 36 year old Aaron Nola I'm not really sure will be very helpful to that Phillies team.
Paying a 36 year old Aaron Nola $24 million is quite literally insane. Yeah, I think that is a little bit of an overpay.
I think they could have avoided that by kind of making it front loaded, maybe, or converting it to signing bonus so they don't have to worry about that down the line. But yeah, that's not great.
[00:03:42] Speaker C: Yeah, I don't know if they had to do this to get him to resign, if maybe he was saying, I need this X amount of years on my deal if I want to resign here, and they thought that they needed to do that. But I don't think a 36 year old, 37 year old, even maybe when he's 35. I don't think Aaron Knowles going to be deserving of $24 million. But I think maybe in the next couple of years, especially if he pitches like he did a few years back when he had a couple of really solid years, and maybe leads them to a World Series, which, obviously their window for a World Series is open right now, after they won the pennant two years ago. And this past year, they made the Championship Series. So if he can give them a solid, above replacement level season next couple of years and take them to the World Series and be, I don't know, game three starter and give him a good win, then it'll be worth it then even if you're, I don't know, maybe even buying him out at the end of his deal. But, I mean, that's way in the future to think about.
[00:04:39] Speaker B: Yeah, I guess I have another question then, because I saw Philly fans, they were, of course, excited because, OEA, we get to keep Aaronola. But looking at the future, let's say 2024 is a repeat of 2023. It could be a repeat of its best career year, which I believe is 2020, if I'm not mistaken.
[00:05:03] Speaker C: I have his baseball reference pulled up. Wait a minute, he was an All Star in 2018. Yeah. So 2018 was his best season, but he also did pitch very well in 2020 as well.
[00:05:13] Speaker B: Okay, I remember he gave us a hard time then, but let's say he still has this falling down effect.
Do you start to quickly turn against this deal? Let's say by All Star break 24, because there's no way that Philly fans are going to like this deal if he has the same results.
[00:05:35] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, I think it's hard to say that if he kind of starts in a slump next year that he's going to pick it back up. I think he's going to have to start to pick it back up after this down year. I don't think he can afford to have another year like this one where he's just kind of mediocre, like, around replacement level if he's making $24 million. So he's going to probably have to return to form pretty quickly, like up to All Star break next season. He should be pitching above decently, above replacement level. Otherwise, if I was a fan, I mean, I would hate to be a Philly fan, but if I was, I would be very annoyed if one of my starters is making $24 million just to be pitching pretty poorly. And I mean, this season in a vacuum. His 2023 season was not deserving of $24 million for seven years anyway. Obviously, they did it because of his years, 2018 to 2020. But, I mean, that's besides the point.
[00:06:22] Speaker B: Yeah. Okay. Well, then let's talk about another pitcher who, again, was connected to the Braves. It seemed like this was a set deal.
Sonny Gray. Great year with the twins.
[00:06:35] Speaker A: Great year.
[00:06:35] Speaker B: I mean, ever since the man has left the Braves, it seems like he has been on a Yankees. Yeah, not the braves. Excuse me.
[00:06:42] Speaker A: The Yankees. Honestly, if I was a Braves fan, I'd be happy I didn't get him because he clearly cannot perform him on a big market team.
[00:06:54] Speaker B: Oh, okay. All right.
[00:06:55] Speaker A: Because the second he leaves pinstripes, he obviously turns.
[00:06:59] Speaker B: Technically, the twins have pinstripes.
[00:07:01] Speaker A: Okay. But the pinstripes, the pinstripes, okay. Some guys can't handle it. Like Sonny Gray is one of them. Joey Gallo Montgomery.
No, he was decent.
He was good. I like Jordan Montgomery, and we flipped him for no. We're going to get him back anyway, though. Sonny Gray, I think he'll do fine. He'll be fine for the rest of his career.
I don't see him continuing to be on the level that he was last year, but he'll be an above average pitcher, I think, and I think he fits well there.
[00:07:39] Speaker B: Yeah, but, I mean, going to the Cardinals, though, it's a questionable decision.
[00:07:49] Speaker A: I don't know the reasoning behind it, but I don't know. Maybe he's from there. I don't know. But was the contract pretty hefty or what?
[00:08:03] Speaker B: Let me pull back up.
[00:08:04] Speaker C: It's three years, 75.
[00:08:06] Speaker B: Yeah, it's not an awful deal.
[00:08:07] Speaker A: 25 a year.
[00:08:08] Speaker C: Yeah. It's the same as Aaron Nola, and he's pitched better in the past.
[00:08:12] Speaker B: But here's the problem. If you are Sonny Gray, you probably could have gotten the same exact deal from Atlanta, right. Because they are in need of someone like him. So why take that Cardinals deal?
[00:08:25] Speaker A: A team that very early on in.
[00:08:27] Speaker B: Free agency and very much early in their rebuild, they got at least another.
[00:08:31] Speaker A: I would see, like, guys of his caliber, I feel like, should wait till after winter meetings.
It's very gutsy move to sign this early into free agency in my opinion, especially when you're going to a team like that.
[00:08:50] Speaker B: I don't know. I'm very kind of shocked with how I guess with it's just and with nola, I've just been shocked. Now this is me speaking as a Braves fan because you would think, okay, you have a team that is in need of pitching very much, wide open window for at least till 2030 to winning a World Series. Why would you not take that chance? That's the thing.
Unless the Braves are basically saying we're not interested because they're going after someone. So I guess let's kind of talk about that a little bit.
We got to talk about because it's probably going to be the biggest signing of baseball in the next 25 years. Showy Otani where is he going to go sign? It seems like all the small market teams are out. It seems like right now the idea is either the Dodgers, Giants or the Braves. That seems to be the three main ones.
Giants, that one seems to possibly be on the end of things. Dodgers, it seems no one really knows. And then Braves, that seems to be I mean, if you go by MLB Network, that seems to be the one that they keep pinning that he's going to be signing with the Braves. I guess I don't want to say it because I don't want to jinx it, but at the same time, look, we haven't really gotten your thoughts on this with Otani's free agency.
First off, how would you feel of him being Atlanta Brave? Of course, he'd probably be playing DH for the first year of his contract by 2025. He can start pitching again.
[00:10:26] Speaker A: I'm kind of like sick of the Braves just adding big name people like chill, please. But honestly, with that being said, this has nothing against the Braves. I genuinely just think the Dodgers are made of money and I think he goes to the Dodgers.
[00:10:45] Speaker B: Okay, then I'm going to say, why did the Braves clear out so much space and clearly dump a bunch of contracts?
[00:10:51] Speaker A: Because I think they thought that they had a shot, but I don't know if they're going to be able to outbid the Dodgers.
[00:10:57] Speaker B: But here's the thing, though. Every time we're hearing insiders talk about his potential deals, they're saying he wants to go to a contender. How have the Dodgers done that recently.
[00:11:07] Speaker A: Besides well, the Dodgers are always contenders. Right.
[00:11:11] Speaker B: But I'm saying in terms of, again, even baseball players I've talked about, okay, how they kind of viewed that 2020 season.
Show I who played through that season. Do you think he views that 2020 season and the World Series that was winning that season as much valued as the 2020?
[00:11:33] Speaker A: No, but I still think even if they lost that year, the Dodgers year after year are always contenders.
I think the Dodgers going to next season with the roster they have now, they can win the World series.
[00:11:44] Speaker B: Right, but okay, then let's say, okay, he wants to go to Lambreys. How do you think about pressure? Because if he goes to Atlanta, he's not going to have as much pressure as he was with the Angels Dodgers. He's probably going to have not as much pressure as he had with the Angels, but he's still going to have a tremendous amount of pressure because they're dropping guys left and right because of either age, like Kershaw or because, look, it feels like some of these guys, they just want to get out of La. For a bit.
[00:12:10] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, it's a good point, but I feel like Shohei wouldn't be the only move because I've seen that if the Dodgers do try to get Otani, which I think we all know that they are, they're going to also try to land Trout with him. And if that's the case and you got guys stacked up there like Justin Turner and Mike Trout and Shoe, and then obviously the lineup they have around them, like the young guys, like, mean, that's a scary, scary team. It's basically like you're taking the two best players on the Angels and putting them on a way better team than the Angels.
[00:12:48] Speaker B: Here's the problem, though. I think Mike Trout, I think he's going to be a dodger. I just do not see show.
[00:12:55] Speaker A: I think if Mike Trout ends up a Dodger, shoe Otani will, too. I think if Shoe Otani goes to the Braves, I think Mike Trout will.
[00:13:02] Speaker B: Be a philly okay, you're acting like they're a package deal to go to La. We have not heard anything that indicates unless you know something, we have not heard anything that indicates. Okay, Mike. Trout and enjoyer.
[00:13:17] Speaker A: They have a package. I'm not really inferring that they're like a package deal. I'm just saying I think if the Dodgers are getting one, they're getting okay, but see, other teams I feel like the Braves wouldn't go after both of them. They can't, can they?
[00:13:34] Speaker B: The Braves right now, I mean, with kind of with their stock deals and stuff like that, they are definitely building up capital to have a larger payroll in the but but here's the problem. We don't need a why would so.
[00:13:47] Speaker A: If you guys break the bank and go for Shohei and say hypothetically, you guys land them, I think the Phillies go and trade because the Phillies then become, whoa, the Braves just got a hell of a lot better. And that's our division rival. We need to compete with that. And they go be at Mike Trout and then they have a lineup with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the guys who have ran the outfield for the last decade and had magazines before there was phones saying, like before there was news on the phone saying who's going to be better, mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Now they're on the same, like, that division. If it's hypothetical, we're saying hypothetical braves land Shohei, phillies land Trout. That division would be unbelievable. Like the Phillies and the Braves, that would be the two best teams in baseball in the same division.
[00:14:39] Speaker B: I mean, look at this rate. My belief is Shohei is going to be a Brave. There seems to be way too much pointing that it's a very distinct possibility. I think there's a chance he can become a just it seems like he is looking for a team that has the longer open window. Atlanta has that longer open window. Dodgers have maybe two years left before they need to really tear it down. And I think that's kind of we we haven't got to hear from you about this topic, I guess. What's your thoughts with all the speculation we've heard over an insiderness from Thanksgiving?
[00:15:15] Speaker C: I mean, I don't really have too much to add. You guys kind of said it pretty well. I think that the Dodgers and the Braves are the two top landing spots for Otani. I think with the Sonny Gray contract that's what I thought. I don't know if I did say this on the show before Thanksgiving, but I thought Sonny Gray was 100% going to be an Atlanta Brave and him signing with the Cardinals just kind of confuses me why he wanted to sign there. But also I don't know why the Braves didn't want to offer him a contract like this one. I don't understand why the Braves who need pitching Sonny Gray coming off the best season he's one of the best seasons he's ever pitched. I don't know why the Braves didn't want to offer him three years, 75 million. I think that's a very fair contract to offer Sonny Gray. He's been pitching really well the past couple of years. I like the short term deal because he is older, but I don't know why the Braves didn't offer him. But that kind of leads me to think that they didn't want to offer Sonny Gray because they don't want to give anyone else money because they want to save as much money as possible to land Otani. But obviously the Dodgers are made of money. I mean, they're probably the biggest market team, if not maybe the Yankees. But they're one of the two biggest market teams in baseball. They always have money. They're going to have enough money to land Otani no matter what. So I don't want to count the Dodgers out. Originally, I had predicted that Otani would go to the Dodgers. It is a lot harder to tell now. I think the Braves before Thanksgiving, I kind of thought they were distant rumors, but I really do think it is a possibility that Otani lands with the Braves, which would be really scary for the Mets. But I also think Luke did mention the giants. I actually do think the Giants are a sleeper team to land Otani. I think a lot of people have been counting them out, but I think they do have a decent chance to land Otani as well. I don't particularly think the Giants are a bad mean. I think, obviously Otani helps any team significantly. But I think if the Giants land Otani, I think they should be in the discussion to make the playoffs. I think they have a solid team, and obviously Otani would make a solid team, like, fantastic. So I think the giants could land otani. They're a big market as well, and it's close to where he stays right now. Obviously, La is even closer, so that's part of the reason why the Dodgers could land him. But, I mean, those three teams are kind of where I sit as well. But the Braves not landing two of the pitchers that were most tied to them in both Aaron Nolan and Sonny Gray leads me to believe that they're holding out even more hope for Otani. So I think that there is a pretty strong possibility now that he goes there.
[00:17:38] Speaker B: All right, well, we do have one pitcher that the Braves have supposedly been targeting. We'll talk about that when we get back from break. Of course, that's still in Cease, but we'll be right back here on WVUA in just a bit.
[00:18:01] Speaker A: WVUA FM Tuscaloosa.
[00:18:16] Speaker B: Welcome back, everybody to student section MLB I'm your host Carson.
[00:18:20] Speaker C: Keel with Luke Torres and Luke Anderson.
[00:18:22] Speaker B: And let's get right back into things. When we last left you guys off before the break, we were talking about how the Atlanta Braves are seemingly leading the market for the Chicago White Sox, potentially former ace Dylan Cease. Something we should mention real quick, at least for me as a Braves fan. Ceases is from the Atlanta area. So, guys, let's talk about this potential trade. Atlanta, again, we talked about before, needs some pitching help.
They're clearing pitchers for a reason.
What are you guys'thoughts on? Chicago possibly trading season. That was a name that no one really expected.
[00:19:00] Speaker A: Do we know Chicago's asking price?
[00:19:03] Speaker B: Let me check. They might have come out recently. In the past 2 hours, I have not seen that. All I know is apparently AJ or Elder was expected as a potential piece from the Braves, but prospects were supposedly being asked for also.
[00:19:17] Speaker A: Okay. I mean, if you want to share your thoughts first, you're the Braves fan.
[00:19:23] Speaker B: For some reason, we're starting to have some weird luck with our prospects under AA, so maybe it's a good deal.
I'm not saying he's a bad drafter. I'm just saying maybe. Well, to be fair, the picks that are panning out now are still from his previous predecessors, so maybe we're starting to see the back end of that.
But I don't know. I would be intrigued, to say the least, to see where things land.
I don't know. I don't want another trade. I just want a free agent. I don't want to lose more pieces. That's the thing. For me, it's like for some reason. The Braves are really good with deadline trades. We don't need to get rid of a bunch of pieces just for offseason trades. Let's save some for the deadline. That's my main concern right now.
[00:20:15] Speaker A: Luke, you're saying you think you want to wait till the deadline?
[00:20:20] Speaker B: No, I'm saying go for seats maybe.
[00:20:23] Speaker A: And then make another move. The deadline.
[00:20:25] Speaker B: Well, here's the thing. I want to land it to save pieces for the deadline. We're a really good deadline team. For some reason, our front office is really good picking out and saying, okay, look, all right, Eddie Rosario, you are having a really good season.
We think we can get you undervalued. Let's go trade for this guy for some cash and maybe the Braves 20th prospect, they can go out and get this guy.
[00:20:52] Speaker A: So you want more moves to be made closer to that line than in the offseason?
[00:20:59] Speaker B: I want pieces to be saved. I feel like a Dylan Cease trade with Chicago, and considering the place, chicago, let me say Wednesday, Chicago, the White Sox are in right now.
It's not the greatest place. They're clearly getting ready under a rebuild. Tim Anderson's probably going to get traded.
[00:21:15] Speaker A: Yeah, agreed.
[00:21:16] Speaker B: And they're probably going to just try to get rid of as many pieces as possible. The Birmingham Barons are going to be good for a hot second soon, and we're going to kind of see the product of that. But here's the problem again. Atlanta is really good with in season trades. Offseason, they're good, yes, but I want to save the pieces for that. I don't want to just make a big move where we already remove pieces.
[00:21:40] Speaker A: So as a Braves fan, your wish list right now is just shohei Otani and then hit the regular season and then go.
[00:21:46] Speaker B: My wish list would probably I would love, I don't know, maybe a Charlie Morne replacement if they could find one. I mean, Glassnow, maybe he is available, but the issue is the injuries with him. That's my one thing. It would be probably Shohei and Glassnow and then saying, okay, offense, there is no issue outfield there is no issue infield very little issues besides shortstop being kind of a mess. But there's enough cover right there. You can kind of hide that with smoke and mirrors. Yeah, it's like pitching is the one concern. Go after pitching and free agency, I'll be happy with that. If we need to make adjustments, we're really good with in season trades. Let's take advantage of that.
[00:22:36] Speaker A: Think I think you got a good thought process.
Would if I were in the Braves situation, with the amount of moves they've made to clear cap space, I think they make even if they don't get Otani, you got to get like two pitchers at least, maybe Glasgnow and cease. If you miss on Otani and then with the remaining pieces you have and the remaining cap space you have, you make a big move at the deadline for someone maybe that's on a team that's underperforming and they're ready to sell. Like, let's say Yankees. Yeah. Let's say the Yankees. And you guys want to take John Carlos Stanton off our hands.
[00:23:13] Speaker B: I'm thinking.
[00:23:13] Speaker A: Aaron judge yeah, not happening. All right. No, but let's say a team that's underperforming.
I'm not really thinking let's say the Twins. Say the Twins underperforming and you guys go get Jorge Polanco.
Right?
[00:23:32] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:23:33] Speaker A: Whoa. That could really happen. I don't know why that I don't know why that name popped in my head, but I could see the Braves making a move for a guy like that in season. If you miss on Otani.
[00:23:46] Speaker B: It'S possible.
[00:23:48] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:23:52] Speaker B: I don't know. I think the Braves office right now, the way they're acting, I think it's going to be after the winter meeting. So that way they can take advantage of the pre holiday thing. For some reason, I just feel really confident as a Brave fan. We're somehow getting, like it seems like everything is lining up where they think something is happening.
Again. You do not have people like, god, I'm going to screw up his name. I always do. John Rosari kind of hinting at it on MLB Network. You don't have the MLB network's Insiders. Again, owned by the MLB. Kind of hinting. He's probably going to be in Atlanta Brave.
Remember last time people were hinting about the Dodgers and they got a free agency free agent. Usually they get that, but they seem to be hinting at the Atlanta Braves and they're not leaning towards anyone else. Seemingly. That's the thing where I'm thinking, okay, as a Braves fan, I'm happy seeing that.
All right, let's get off the Braves. Talk real quick, though. We'll say All Star Game 2025. It is officially coming to Atlanta. Man, Fred can't steal it from us this time.
[00:24:59] Speaker A: Before we do move on, though, I did want to say we missed a signing today, actually. Yes, luis severino.
[00:25:07] Speaker B: I was going to bring that up later.
[00:25:09] Speaker A: I just wanted to stay on the topic of the pitchers that have signed already.
One of my favorite Yankees, he was a great Yankee, but he signed with the Mets.
[00:25:19] Speaker B: So going to the side town one.
[00:25:21] Speaker A: Year, $13 million, I think that's a severe overpay. But the Mets are made of money, so they can do that for one year deals.
If he stays healthy, it's a good signing. If not, but that's a risk the Mets can take because of the money that they have.
But, yeah, I mean, he's been very injury prone, but when he's healthy, he is a great, great pitcher, and I'm.
[00:25:46] Speaker C: Going to miss him.
[00:25:47] Speaker B: All right, well, Luke, first let me ask you thoughts on a possible cease trade to Atlanta or any other team, and then we'll ask you about, of course, the Mets signing today.
[00:25:57] Speaker C: Yeah, so I'd heard Dylan cease's name a couple times. I think the White Sox should blow it up. I think Cease is a perfect first option to trade. He's got a lot of value. He's a year removed this past season. He wasn't great, but he's a year removed from a phenomenal pitching season. And so far in his younger career, he's been very good, so they can net a lot of prospects out of him. I think Carson kind of nailed it. I think the Braves should focus more on signing a free agent as opposed to giving up pieces and trading. I agree that they would be better to save those pieces for the deadline and just focus on signing free agents now, maybe return to a Dylan Cease trade talk if Otani goes somewhere else. But I also think Cease is going to be traded sooner rather than later, and I think Otani is going to be signed later rather than sooner. So, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Cease is traded before Otani's sign. In that case, he wouldn't have the safety valve anymore. But I don't think that they should trade for him.
But, I mean, it wouldn't be a bad move. Obviously, I think Cease is a great pitcher and the Braves need pitching. Moving on to the Mets signing, obviously, this affects me a lot as a Mets fan. I think that it is a slight overpay. But also Luis Severino has had a couple really good All Star pitching seasons. I think this is reminding me a lot of the Cody Bellinger deal from this past season where he signed one year for 20 million, and that seemed like a huge overpay, and that was a prove yourself deal. I mean, he had a couple of phenomenal seasons with the Dodgers, and then he started slumping really bad, and the Cubs were like, okay, here's a lot of money. Prove yourself and maybe we'll extend you. And they gave him a lot of money, and he proved himself really well. Now he's one of the top offensive free agent names in this free agency. I think the Cubs will extend him, but that's a different topic. But I think this is the same sort of thing. I think they had to pay a little bit more if they wanted to lock him down. But the Mets are saying, okay, prove yourself that you can get back to the pitching that you were doing just a few years ago. And if that happens, then maybe the Mets will extend them for another couple of years. But I think that the Mets were very lacking in starting rotation. I mean, they had Kodai Senga and Quintana, and basically the three, four and five spot were a toss up, maybe like Tyler McGill. But I mean, they didn't have any guys even for the three hole. So I don't think Severino will be nearly as bad as he was this past season. I think even if he doesn't return to being an All Star, he could. Be a solid three or four spot in the rotation, which is something that the Mets need. The Mets are obviously one of the bigger teams pursuing Yamamoto. I hope that they do sign him, but if they can, then the rotation now goes from just having Senga and Kitana to having Yamamoto sanga, two, Kitana three, Severino four. And then maybe the five hole is just someone like Tyler McGill or someone who could pitch four innings and then maybe do a bullpen sort of game. So I do like this signing. I mean, Severino is one of the smaller names, so it wasn't as much money as signing someone like Sonny Gray or Jordan Montgomery, who I think the Mets also still can sign. So they are saving a little more money for a big Yamamoto signing, which I think they are certainly gunning for. So I am a fan of this deal. I mean, Luke was saying that he is going to miss Severino. I think Severino is a really good team player. I think he's going to be good in the locker room. So I do like this signing. As a Mets fan, I'm excited to see him in Queens.
[00:29:21] Speaker B: Man, I don't know about yamoto. That seems to be a weird situation because yankees, Dodgers, Phillies here's the thing, I think the Dodgers are going to go for him instead of Otani at this rate. They seem very vested.
[00:29:36] Speaker A: Yeah, I also saw that the Phillies are pretty invested too, with him. But I saw a couple things.
One, I saw that apparently he wants to join a team that has other Japanese players on, also saw I forgot who reported it, but they said the Yankees did not issue the number 18 last year, so Yamamoto would join.
[00:30:04] Speaker B: But that could be a giant coincidence.
[00:30:06] Speaker A: I know. No, but someone like credible actually reported that.
I called BS, but I don't know.
[00:30:14] Speaker B: Yeah, that screams coincidence. But when the rumors started about a month ago, we thought it was going to be a Met. That was the way things were going. I mean, where do you think it could be?
[00:30:27] Speaker C: I mean, I think the Mets emerged as the very early number one. I think the Yankees have kind of overtaken them. More people are saying that he will be a Yankee versus a Met. But I think when he was announced that he would be wanting to sign an MLB, people first kind of assumed that he would want to be on a team with Japanese players anyway, which is I think is why the Mets emerged, especially because the Mets have Senga who's a pitcher, so they'll be pitching together. One of the other names I've heard kind of under the radar has been the Red Sox, which they also I mean, it makes sense for them because they also have who's? Their rookie? Yeah, Yoshida. That's right. And I think they were teammates in Japan as well. Yamamoto and Yoshida played on the same team in NPB. So I think the Red Sox and the Mets are two contenders in that regard. Obviously, the Mets have a lot more money than the Red Sox. Obviously, the Yankees have a lot more money than those teams as well. The Yankees don't, I mean, have the Japanese star, but they are also big market. Obviously, one of the earliest kind of headlines was that Yamamoto wanted to sign with a big market team. So, I mean, what other teams to think about besides the Yankees and the Mets and the Dodgers? Those sort of teams. And it would make sense for him to want to join a big market team anyway because he could even get ten years. I mean, he's young. He's one of the best pitchers on the planet, so he's going to get an enormous contract. So it's just kind of a matter of where at this point. But I think he'll definitely be signed before Otani. I wouldn't be surprised if he's signed in the next couple of weeks, so I'm excited to see where that goes. I really hope he does become a Met.
[00:32:04] Speaker B: All right, I guess to kind of quickly wrap up things as we're reaching the end of the segment, because we're going to be talking about managers coming up.
But for right now, besides Otani, we know that's probably going to be the biggest signing and like I said, probably going to be the biggest signing for 25 years.
What do you think is kind of going to be the second biggest signing out there?
Do you have a player that you think could be the second biggest.
[00:32:34] Speaker C: This isn't a signing, but I think the second biggest move of the free agency is going to be the Juan Soto trade. I mean, we haven't talked about that, but there was a report that the Padres are now kind of in really serious talks with teams, including the Yankees, about trading Soto. And I think a Juan Soto trade is going to require a pretty substantial trade package, so and Juan Soto is a huge name. I mean, the issue Luke brought this up before the show is about Juan Soto resigning with a team. So I don't know how much a team is going to want to give up if they're only expecting a Juan Soto rental, but I think that would be one of the biggest moves of the free agency, even though it's a trade in terms of a signing. If you want to go with offensive player, I think Cody Bellinger, I haven't heard anything about where he wants to go yet, but I think he's one of the best players in this free agency, so teams are going to want to sign him. And he's younger, too, so he's going to get like, six or seven years, in my opinion. So that's going to be a pretty big deal as well.
[00:33:28] Speaker A: Yeah, I did want to add something on the Soto.
Yesterday, it was reported that the Yankees and Padres began talks today. According to Jeff Passon, they have started exchanging names. So things are heating up and I wouldn't be surprised if Soto was dealt before the Winter meetings.
[00:33:49] Speaker B: Interesting.
All right, well, we have to take a quick break, but we'll be right back. We got to talk about the Padres new manager, a familiar name in the baseball scene. And then, of course, it feels like we're wrapping up on the manager stuff, which is very interesting. But hey, interesting times ahead. We'll be back in five. Talk about that and more.
[00:34:23] Speaker A: Tuscaloosa.
[00:34:37] Speaker B: And welcome back on WVUA. I'm Carson Kill with Luke Tory and Luke Anderson, and this is Student. Section MLB guys, let's wrap it up. We got ten more minutes here of Baseball Talk. Let's talk about the Padres brand new manager, someone that has been around the block with the MLB very long time. Mike Schmidt is, of course, he was the bench coach for the Cardinals. He was given the interim role and was then handed the manager role, was fired last year, midseason, I believe, right before the now he is staying in the NL and he is going to be going to San Diego. Of course, Bob Melvin, the former manager there, he has become the Giants manager. So going back to the Bay Area for him, I guess. What's your thoughts? This is a very surprising name for me, for the Padres, because I thought they would go with someone a little younger and with a little less experience.
[00:35:34] Speaker A: Yeah, I mean, they still got the like as of right now, Juan Soto is on the roster, but he will be moved. But they still have Manny Machado. They still have Xander Bogarts. They still have Jake Cronenworth, who also could be in a trade to the Yankees, potentially. I saw that. If the Yankees could potentially get both of them in a trade and then obviously who's the other one that I'm missing?
[00:36:01] Speaker B: Tatis.
[00:36:01] Speaker A: Tatis, right. Fernando Tatis, if he could stay healthy. I mean, I think they should have went after a manager that has experience, that knows how to deal with situations like that they're in and knows how to work with guys like that. Because clearly the last few years haven't really gone the Padres way. They obviously have the talent on the roster, but they are not doing anything with it.
I'm not blaming that on the manager completely, but there could have been different decisions made. And whatnot I think they should have gone with a guy who had more experience, older guy who's been around. So I kind of like it.
It was kind of out of left field. I didn't think they were going to go after him, but I like it. I'm a fan. I think it's going to work well for them.
[00:36:53] Speaker B: I guess. Luke, what's your thoughts? Because I have my mean kind of.
[00:36:59] Speaker C: It is kind of a strange name that I don't know if anyone really expected, but I kind of like what Luke said. I think this obviously this past season for the Padres was a complete dumpster fire, but I don't think it's time just yet to completely blow it up. I mean, it seems like they might be heading that way because it definitely seems like Soto's being dealt. But, I mean, Luke just named a bunch of really talented baseball players that are still on the Padres team. I mean, their pitching is questionable. Obviously. Blake snell. We didn't mention him. I mean, he is a free agent, so who knows if they'll retain him? But, I mean, they still have some talent, so I don't think they're in a position to completely blow it up. So I think they could have used a manager who can come in with a little bit of experience, maybe for some damage control, try to push them to make the playoffs, like, a couple of years, and then if it doesn't work, then they can start the rebuild. But I think they should make a crack at going to the playoffs again. I think they have the talent that it might be possible. So I like this signing for the manager position. I think maybe next year I'd give it maybe two years of trying to make the playoffs before I think they should just blow it up completely. But I also like having Schmidt there even during a rebuild. So I do like this signing for them.
[00:38:15] Speaker B: I think this is a terrible move for the Padres.
[00:38:19] Speaker A: I knew that was coming.
[00:38:25] Speaker B: Again, we used the term panic move early in the show, this green panic move. It was like, we need a veteran. We need someone the players respect. We need someone who's going to lead this locker room.
Mike Schmidt. Not that guy. I've always saw with the Cardinals. He had control that locker room for a little bit. He had a good team going. I don't think he could control that locker room. Here's the problem. You have a Padres team that is made up of star players, very good players, however reckless players. Is that a fair assessment?
[00:39:02] Speaker A: Yeah, I think I would say yes.
[00:39:03] Speaker C: So more so than the Cardinals?
[00:39:05] Speaker B: Definitely yes.
I would not be surprised. Rise if he has gone by the All Star break. I don't think he can handle that. I don't think he can handle that locker room.
I don't see it.
[00:39:16] Speaker A: You think he'd be gone by All Star break in his first year either.
[00:39:20] Speaker B: That he's gonna let go by the end of the first year?
[00:39:22] Speaker A: Yeah, I think it's very rare to see a guy who just got hired to get fired before the season ends.
[00:39:27] Speaker C: Right.
[00:39:28] Speaker B: Again, I don't think he's going to be able to control that locker room. Melvin could. Melvin was able to get a handle on it, but Mike Schmidt again, when you go back and look at stuff with the Cardinals. It seems like he would let players kind of do their minimum and then just let go.
Can you guys imagine? I mean Maine rich auto. It seems like he's very much matured, but you got a certain steroid allegations against one player, especially, again, great player, supposedly not the greatest work ethic. Can you see Mike Schmidt handling that well?
[00:40:06] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, I feel like it would be hard for anyone to handle that, but I think maybe he can. I wouldn't say he'd be fired at the All Star break, especially because it's his first year. I think they have to give him a full season. But I think if they ultimately lose Soto, which I think they will, and if they ultimately lose Snell, I think the Padres have a really serious concern with, I mean, their whole pitching. They're going to lose Josh Hader, too, probably. So I think their pitching is a huge concern.
Honestly, it wouldn't completely be a surprise to me if the Padres lose Snell and Hater and Soto if they lose 100 games next year. And that might be blamed on the manager, but I think he would still get a full year, at least. And even still, I don't know if even if they do lose 100 games, which I think it's a slim chance, but I wouldn't be completely surprised. I still don't think they can fire him after one year. I really don't.
[00:40:55] Speaker A: Yeah, I think he's there until the end of 25 at the minimum.
[00:41:00] Speaker C: Blake snow minimum. No.
Well, I don't know if Blake Snow is going to resign, but I think.
[00:41:05] Speaker A: Blake Snow might be a Philly.
[00:41:07] Speaker C: I think he hasn't been tied there yet. Yeah, but I mean, if they lose him, I think that's mean, I think even if they keep him, I think Schmidt's in a bad position going there. I don't like that position for anyone being the manager of this Padres team right now, but I think that he'll stay there at least one year. I would say two as well, like Luke said. But it is hard to tell. I don't know the direction that the team is going to go at all next year. I think there's a slight chance they could win 100 games, and then there's a slight chance they could lose 100 games would flip a coin, and that's how I would figure out what I think the Padres are going to do next year. And I don't think him being there makes that much of a difference. I think they can lose 100 games with him. I think they can win 100 games with him. So I think it's a complete toss up, really.
[00:41:54] Speaker B: All right.
With what we know about the Padres so far, juan Soto possibly getting traded, very likely happening at this point, what do you think their record's going to be?
[00:42:08] Speaker A: I'm predicting the Padres record next year.
[00:42:10] Speaker B: Padres record again, you still have Machado and the rest of that talent. Like Snell.
[00:42:18] Speaker A: I think we're saying Snell resigns.
In this scenario. Yeah, we can in this scenario, let's say Snell resigns. I say they finish between ten and 15 games over 500.
[00:42:33] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:42:34] Speaker A: At the absolute max, I could see them going 500.
[00:42:39] Speaker B: Okay.
Which in the NL West, you cannot survive one.
[00:42:44] Speaker C: Right? Absolutely not. I mean, like I said, I really think it's a complete toss up. I think they can do anything. They can be mediocre, they can be terrible, or they could be amazing. It depends on how Schmidt comes in and manages the place, and it just depends on how they bounce back from their year last year. I'm trying to figure out what their exact record was this past season.
Let me see. But I think that they'll finish if they keep Blake Snell. I mean, they had the same talent this year, and they finished below 500, and they're going to lose Soto, and Soto is one of the best players on the roster. I think there's a pretty decent chance that they finish below 500. I think maybe I'd say anywhere between five to ten games below 500. But like I said, it wouldn't come as a total shock to me if they lost 100 games.
[00:43:30] Speaker B: I'm not going to say 100.
I think they're probably, let's see, 162. Just doing some middle math real quick.
[00:43:37] Speaker C: Because I think they have the potential to be very bad.
[00:43:40] Speaker B: Yeah, that's the thing. I'm going to say that they're going to be, like, bad, but they can still win a few games. I'm going to say they lose 75% of their games.
[00:43:46] Speaker C: Yeah, I think something like that as well. I can't find their record for some reason, but I think they could win maybe go like, 70 wins, maybe, I think would be a fair estimate. So I think their ceiling is high, but their floor is so low, so it's going to be hard to tell.
[00:44:05] Speaker B: Yeah. All right, well, I want to say thank you, everyone. This is going to be the last show. Of course, we have Dead Week next week, so we won't be able to.
[00:44:12] Speaker A: Do all in the spring.
[00:44:13] Speaker B: Yes. See you in the spring. We'll be back, but until then, enjoy Christmas, and I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving, and we'll see you guys getting ready to talk about spring training, but until then, stay safe.
[00:44:25] Speaker A: Can't wait.
